Warmth springs on ag earlier

Héctor Alejandro Arzate Mississippi River Basin Ag & Water Desk
Apr 11, 2026
11 hrs ago

Joe Lau, a row-crop farmer near St. Joseph, Missouri, says he’s noticing more extreme weather these days.
Mississippi River Basin Ag & Water Desk

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Héctor Alejandro Arzate Mississippi River Basin Ag & Water Desk

COLUMBIA, Mo. – As a row-crop farmer near St. Joseph, Missouri, Joe Lau said he’s noticing more extreme weather these days. There are warmer seasons throughout the year. Quarter-inch predictions of rain are stamped out by storms that bring 3 inches. There’s increased pressure from pests on his corn. He’s also noticed spring is coming earlier.

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The First Leaf Index is based on the leaf-out of lilacs and honeysuckles, which are among the first plants to show their leaves in the spring. This Index is associated with the first leafing of early-spring shrubs and other plants. To determine how the current spring compares to “normal” we difference the day of year the leaf-out was reached this year from the long-term average 1991-2020 day of year it was met.

Plant-hardiness zones are projected to shift northward throughout this century. Plant-hardiness zones help farmers and gardeners identify optimal crops to plant and when to plant them. Hardiness zones are projected to migrate northward as the climate warms. The maps show plant hardiness zones for (a) present-day (1991–2020) climate normals, and (b) midcentury (2036–2065) and (c) late century (2071–2100) under a high-emissions scenario. USDA, NOAA NCEI, and CISESS NC