“Prices range from $.03-$.07 higher with all 3 classes closing well off session highs. CGO Sept-26 was up $.02 ¾ at $6.63 ½, KC Sept-26 was $.05 ¼ higher at $7.30 ¾, while MIAX Sept-26 was up $.06 ½ at $7.11 ½. Russia reportedly struck a dry-cargo vessel near the Ukrainian port of Pivdennyi and 2 more near Odesa. Ukrainian drone strikes damaged a major Russian grain export terminal near the Kerch Strait causing significant damage. No end in sight as both sides continue to target grain storage, infrastructure and vessels. Rusagrotrans lowered Russia’s July export forecast to 1.9 mmt while expecting August shipments between 3-3.5 mmt. likely heading lower if situation doesn’t improve soon. US exports at 11 mil. bu. were at the low end of expectations. YTD commitments at 254 mil. are down 28% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 15%. Pace analysis would suggest the USDA export forecast is too high, however given the situation in the Black Sea I look for no change in the Aug-26 WASDE. The EU Commission lowered their 2026/27 wheat production forecast nearly 2 mmt to 124.4 mmt while also cutting exports 1 mmt to 29 mmt. Their forecast is well below the USDA est. of 136 mmt with exports at 31 mmt,” pointed out Mark Soderberg with ADM Investor Services.
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