“Prices ranged from $.10-$.14 lower in volatile 2-sided trade. CGO Sept-26 was down $.10 ¼ at $6.30 ¼, KC Sept-26 was $.14 ¼ lower at $6.99 ¾ while MIAX Sept-26 was down $.10 ¾ at $6.59 ¼. Ukraine’s Ag. Ministry fears their grain export terminals may face a massive shortage of grain storage that could reach 11 mmt. SovEcon estimates Russia will ship 3-3.4 mmt of wheat in Aug-26, down from their historical average of 5 mmt. IKAR lowered their 2026 Russian production forecast .5 mmt to 90 mmt while lowering their export forecast .5 mmt to 44.5. The USDA is est. Russian production at 88.5 mmt with exports at 47.5. US WW harvest has hit the home stretch at 91% complete, in line with the 5-year average. Spring wheat ratings fell 4% to 51% G/E vs. expectations for a 2% decline. Composite ratings fell to their lowest level of the crop cycle however remain above their 5-year average. 24% of the crop has been harvested vs. 5-year averarge of 19%. Ukraine is reported looking to rail grain through neighboring Moldova to the Romanian port Constanta to avoid dangerous shipping lanes in the Black Sea. EU soft wheat exports at just over 1 mmt are down 57% from YA. Since 2010 the USDA raised US WW production 10 times while lowering it 6,” pointed out Mark Soderberg with ADM Investor Services.
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