“The lower trade was seemingly driven by sharply lower FOB offers from both Ukraine and Russia; however, that will likely not offset surging freight/insurance costs, if they can be obtained at all. Last month’s surge to 2 to 3-year highs was driven by logistical issues, not by supply issues, something that a peace agreement could quickly solve. Prices across the 3 classes fell to 3-4 week lows. CGO Sept-26 was $.11 lower at $6.31, KC Sept-26 was down $.13 ¾ at $6.99 ¾, while MIAX Sept-26 was off $.12 ½ at $6.71. Algeria reportedly bought up to 720k mt of wheat yesterday with prices near $289-$290/mt CF. A Russian missile damaged a vessel in the Black Sea carrying Ukrainian wheat. Ukraine is reportedly working with Romania to shift export shipments through their Constanta port. Expana lowered their EU soft wheat production forecast by 1.5 mmt to 126.8 mmt. U.S. spring wheat acres in drought surged 16% to 58% (up 33% in 2 weeks). Durum acres in drought jumped 23% to 49%. Wheat sales at 11 mil. bu. were at the low end of expectations. YTD commitments at 265 mil. are down 30% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 15%,” pointed out Mark Soderberg with ADM Investor Services.





