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“Ukraine’s largest farm union expects they will export no more than 11 mmt of wheat in the 26/27 MY, down from 14 mmt YA and below the USDA estimate of 12.5 mmt. Since July they have shipped only 3.13 mmt, down 44% YOY. U.S. winter wheat plantings advanced 15% to 51%, still below the 5-year Ave. of 58%. With prices across the three classes $1.30-$2 off their recent highs, I see limited downside risk unless the Black Sea reopens. Upside potential also limited as global buyers still haven’t shifted to U.S. while drought conditions in the Plains will likely continue to ease,” Soderberg said.





