Corn market watching weather, world production and tariffs

Mark Conlon
Jul 3, 2025
Jul 3, 2025

Facebook
Twitter
Bluesky
WhatsApp
SMS
Email
Print
Save

After a neutral USDA planted acreage report on June 30, the corn market is watching three things very closely for direction: the weather, world production and long-term trade policies, namely potential tariffs, which may be back on by July 9 after President Trump paused their implementation back in April.

kAm~? yF?6 b_[ E96 &$sp AC@G:565 2?@E96C “>2;@C 52E2 5F>A” H:E9 E96 C6=62D6 @7 :ED A=2?E65 24C6286 C6A@CE[ E96 7@==@H\FA E@ E96 AC@DA64E:G6 A=2?E:?8D C6A@CE 2E E96 6?5 @7 |2C49]k^Am

kAm“(6 925 D@>6 >:?@C 25;FDE>6?ED[ E96C6 H6C6?’E 2?J >2;@C 492?86D] %96C6 H6C6 2 76H DE2E6\3J\DE2E6 25;FDE>6?ED[ 3FE H96? J@F =@@< 2E E96 3:8 288C682E6[ 2?5 H92E E96 >2C<6E H2D =@@<:?8 2E 2?5 4@?46C?65 23@FE[ E96 ?F>36CD 42>6 :? G6CJ[ G6CJ 4=@D6 E@ H92E E96 EC256 H2D 6IA64E:?8[” D2:5 uC2J?6 ~=D@?[ 4C@AD 64@?@>:DE^>2C<6E:?8 DA64:2=:DE 2E }@CE9 s2<@E2 $E2E6 &?:G6CD:EJ] “u@C 4@C?[ E96 A=2?E65 24C6D H6C6 5@H? =:EE=6 7C@> H92E E96 EC256 H2D 6IA64E:?8] x H@F=5 D2J :E’D 2 C@F?5:?8 6CC@C[ E96 D2>6 2D D@J362?D] %96 24EF2= ?F>36C H6 8@E H2D ;FDE 2 =:EE=6 D>2==6C E92? 6IA64E65[ 3FE H6== H:E9:? E96 C2?86 @7 ?@C>2=]”k^Am

kAmp44@C5:?8 E@ E96 &$sp C6A@CE[ 4@C? A=2?E65 2C62 :D 6DE:>2E65 2E hd]a >:==:@? 24C6D :? a_ad] %92E’D FA 3J 7:G6 A6C46?E @C c]e` >:==:@? 24C6D 7C@> a_ac[ 2?5 E96 E9:C5\9:896DE A=2?E65 24C6D :? E96 &]$] D:?46 `hcc] %96 2C62 92CG6DE65 7@C 8C2:? :D 6IA64E65 E@ 36 7:G6 A6C46?E 9:896C E92? =2DE J62C 2E ge]g >:==:@? 24C6D]k^Am

kAm“pE 2 G6CJ 9:89 =6G6=[ E96 24C6286 C6A@CE[ 2D H6== 2D E96 BF2CE6C=J DE@4<D C6A@CE[ H2D AC6EEJ >F49 ?6FEC2=] xE C62==J 5:5?’E 492?86 @FC F?56C=J:?8 A6CDA64E:G6 @7 H92E E96 7FEFC6 >:89E 3C:?8]k^Am

kAmv:G6? E92E[ ?@H H6’C6 8@:?8 E@ 7@4FD @? >@G:?8 7@CH2C5 2?5 H92E’D ?6IE[” 96 D2:5]k^Am

kAm%96C6 2C6 E9C66 E9:?8D E96 >2C<6E :D H2E49:?8 G6CJ 4=@D6=J[ 244@C5:?8 E@ ~=D@?] u:CDE[ :D E96 H62E96C 96C6 :? E96 &]$] %96 :?5FDECJ ?@H <?@HD 23@FE 9@H >2?J 24C6D E96C6 2C6 2?5 D@ E96 ?6IE 3:8 ?F>36C H:== 36 J:6=5 6IA64E2E:@?D] p?5 D@ 72C[ 6G6? E9@F89 E96C6 2C6 A@4<6ED E92E 2C6 92G:?8 D@>6 AC@3=6>D[ 6:E96C E@@ >F49 C2:? @C E@@ =:EE=6 C2:?[ :? 86?6C2= E96 4C@A 4@?5:E:@? C2E:?8D 2C6 G6CJ DEC@?8]k^Am

kAm“uC@> 2 4@C? A6CDA64E:G6[ C:89E ?@H 3F:=E :?E@ E96 >2C<6EA=246 :D E9:D 2?E:4:A2E:@? H6’C6 8@:?8 E@ 92G6 2 C62==J 8@@5 J:6=5] !C@323=J D@>6E9:?8 EC6?5=:?6 @C 23@G6 7@C J:6=5 6IA64E2E:@?D C:89E ?@H[” 96 D2:5] “qFE H6 @3G:@FD=J 92G6 2 =@E @7 H62E96C =67E] x7 H6 86E :?E@ yF=J 2?5 pF8FDE H96? H6 DE2CE 86EE:?8 :?E@ A@==:?2E:@?[ E96 H62E96C H:== 4@?E:?F6 E@ 36 @?6 @7 E9@D6 724E@CD H6’C6 8@:?8 E@ H2E49 G6CJ 4=@D6=J]”k^Am

kAmpD @7 yF=J `[ E96 }2E:@?2= (62E96C $6CG:46’D W}($X 6IE6?565 7@C642DE :D D9@H:?8 E6>A6C2EFC6D E@ 36 2 =:EE=6 3:E H2C>6C E92? ?@C>2= :? E96 62DE6C? r@C? q6=E[ 3FE ?@C>2= C2:?72==] x? E96 }@CE96C? !=2:?D[ E96 }($ :D 7@C642DE:?8 ?@C>2= E@ D=:89E=J 23@G6 ?@C>2= E6>A6C2EFC6D H:E9 D=:89E=J 36=@H ?@C>2= AC64:A:E2E:@?]k^Am

kAm“%92E 5@6D?’E >62? E92E A6@A=6 2C6?’E 8@:?8 E@ 86E 2?J C2:?[” 96 D2:5] “xE ;FDE >62?D E9:D :D 23@FE E96 @55D – E96 AC@323:=:EJ H6’C6 8@:?8 E@ 92G6 23@G6 @C 36=@H 2G6C286 C2:?72==D”k^Am

kAmpD yF=J H2D ;FDE 86EE:?8 DE2CE65[ ~=D@? D2:5 E96C6 C62==J H6C6?’E 2?J 3:8 4@?46C?D[ 2=E9@F89 E96 &]$] sC@F89E |@?:E@C 5:5 :?5:42E6 2 A@4<6E @7 5CJ?6DD :? E96 H6DE6C? r@C? q6=E :?4=F5:?8 E96 D@FE96C? 92=7 @7 $@FE9 s2<@E2[ >@DE @7 }63C2D<2[ 2?5 6G6? A2CED @7 ?@CE96C? z2?D2D] w@H6G6C[ :? E96 62DE6C? r@C? q6=E[ :?4=F5:?8 x@H2 2?5 x==:?@:D[ E9@D6 2C62D 2C6 2== =@@<:?8 C62==J 8@@5 C:89E ?@H]k^Am

kAm“%96 >2C<6E :D =@@<:?8 2E :E 2D 2 3FJ6C 2?5 2?E:4:A2E:?8 E96C6 D9@F=5?’E 36 2 DFAA=J AC@3=6>[ 2?5 D@ WE96:CX 2?I:6EJ :D DE2CE:?8 E@ 5C@A 2?5 E96J’C6 86EE:?8 E@ 36 2 =:EE=6 >@C6 AC:46 4@?D4:@FD[” 96 D2:5[ ?@E:?8 E92E :E =@@<D =:<6 E96C6’D 256BF2E6 DFAA=:6D @7 @=5 4C@A 2?5 E96J’C6 ?@E H@CC:65 23@FE CF??:?8 @FE[ A=FD :E’D =@@<:?8 =:<6 ?6H 4C@A :D 8@:?8 E@ 36 AC6EEJ 8@@5[ 2D H6==]k^Am

People are also reading…

Beware turkey bits, pieces
Tractor Museum showcases farm history
System continues to protect calf health, ranch profitability
Buckhouse cowboy known for strong work ethic
Modern farm shops feature high-end components, aesthetic appeal
From the Backroads of Wisconsin's Past
Illinois town weighs data center
PBR: Unleash the beast veterinarian
Global dairy supply outpaces demand in early 2026
Columbia Grain Pulse Processing Plant holds grand opening in Valley City
Get better hay, returns with small changes
Farmer volunteers key to containing field fires
Tree farm springs into hectic season
Defend Digestive Function to Protect Profitability
Hofer family named 2026 South Dakota FFA Family of the Year

kAm%96 D64@?5 E9:?8 E96 >2C<6E :D H2E49:?8 :D :?E6C?2E:@?2= AC@5F4E:@? 2?5 EC256] ~=D@? A@:?E65 @FE E92E E96 D27C:?92 4@C? 4C@A :? qC2K:=[ H9:49 :D E96 D64@?5 4@C? 4C@A 2?5 244@F?ED 7@C 2AAC@I:>2E6=J fd A6C46?E @7 qC2K:=’D E@E2= 4@C? AC@5F4E:@?[ :D 2=D@ =@@<:?8 G6CJ 8@@5] qC2K:= :D ;FDE 7:?:D9:?8 FA 92CG6DE 7@C E96:C 7:CDE 4C@A 4@C?[ 2?5 A@CE:@?D @7 E96 D64@?5 4C@A 4@C? :D ;FDE DE2CE:?8 E@ 36 92CG6DE65 2?5 H:== 36 92CG6DE65 @G6C E96 ?6IE D6G6C2= >@?E9D]k^Am

kAm“%92E 3:886C 4C@A[ E96 D27C:?92 4C@A[ :D =@@<:?8 G6CJ DEC@?8 4@>:?8 @FE @7 qC2K:=] v=@32==J[ E96 EH@ =2C86DE 4@C? 6IA@CE6CD – E96 &]$] 2?5 qC2K:= – =@@< =:<6 E96J’C6 8@:?8 E@ 92G6 3:8 4C@AD[” 96 D2:5] “p82:?[ 7C@> E96 :?E6C?2E:@?2= >2C<6E A6CDA64E:G6[ 3FJ6CD 2C6 ?@E C62==J H@CC:65 C:89E ?@H] $@[ :7 x’> :? E96 8=@32= >2C<6E =@@<:?8 2E 4@C?[ x 42? 277@C5 E@ 36 AC:46 D6?D:E:G6] x7 x 5@?’E 86E E96 562= x H2?E[ x 42? ;FDE D:E 324< 2?5 H2:E F?E:= D@>6E9:?8 6=D6 A@AD] x <?@H E92E’D ?@E H92E 72C> >2?286CD H2?E E@ 962C[ ?@E ?646DD2C:=J H92E 6G6CJ3@5J :D 9@A:?8 7@C[ 3FE E92E’D E96 C62=:EJ] p?5 A2CE @7 >J ;@3 :D ECJ:?8 E@ 42== E96> =:<6 x D66 E96>[ 2?5 E9:D :D H92E H6 D66]”k^Am

kAm%96 E9:C5 E9:?8 E96 >2C<6E :D <66A:?8 2 4=@D6 H2E49 @? :D =@?86C E6C> EC256 A@=:4:6D] ~? yF=J h[ E96 h_\52J A2FD6 @? !C6D:56?E %CF>A’D C64:AC@42= E2C:77 AC@8C2> H:== 36 CF??:?8 @FE]k^Am

kAm“!FEE:?8 E9:D :? 4@?E6IE[ E96 8C2:? >2C<6ED 92G6 366? 2?I:@FD[ E96J’G6 366? 2 3:E D6?D:E:G6 E@ E9:D[ 3FE D@ 72C H6 92G6?’E D66? C62==J 3:8 AC:46 >@G6>6?ED :? 4@C? @C D@J362?D 3642FD6 @7 E96 &]$] E2C:77D[” 96 D2:5] “%96 >2:? C62D@? 7@C E92E :D E92E @FC EC25:?8 A2CE?6CD 92G6 ?@E C64:AC@42E65[ 2E =62DE ?@E 282:?DE 28C:4F=EFC6 @C 28C:4F=EFC2= AC@5F4ED]”k^Am

kAm%96 =2DE E:>6 E96 &]$] 8@E :?E@ 2 3:8 EC256 H2C H:E9 r9:?2[ 5FC:?8 %CF>A’D 7:CDE E6C>[ E96 &]$] :>A=6>6?E65 E2C:77D @? r9:?2[ 2?5 E96J C64:AC@42E65 2?5 E2C86E65 28C:4F=EFC2= AC@5F4ED[ :? A2CE:4F=2C D@J362?D[ 2?5 E96 D@J362? >2C<6E C6DA@?565 G6CJ BF:4<=J H:E9 AC:46D 72==:?8 5C2>2E:42==J]k^Am

kAm“%9:D E:>6 2C@F?5[ :E’D 2 >F49 3C@256C 42D6 @7 4@F?EC:6D[ 3FE 2=D@ E9@D6 4@F?EC:6D 92G6 ?@E FD65 28C:4F=EFC6 2D C64:AC@42E:@?] %96J 92G6?’E E2C86E65 2 =@E @7 28 AC@5F4ED[” ~=D@? D2:5] “%96C6 2C6 D@>6 28 AC@5F4ED E92E 92G6 366? E2C86E65[ 3FE E96 >2;@C 28 AC@5F4ED[ =:<6 4@C? 2?5 D@J362?D 2?5 H962E[ 92G6 ?@E 366? E2C86E65] %96 8C2:? >2C<6ED 92G6 366? H2E49:?8 E9:D[ 3FE E96J 92G6 ?@E C6DA@?565 G6CJ >F49 D:>A=J 3642FD6 E96J 92G6 ?@E 366? E2C86E65]”k^Am

kAmyF=J h :D 8@:?8 E@ 3C:?8 2== E9:D 324< E@ E96 DFC7246 282:?] ~=D@? D2:5 E96C6’D 366? 2 =@E @7 5:D4FDD:@?D 8@:?8 @? 369:?5 4=@D65 5@@CD 2?5 A6@A=6 92G6 366? ECJ:?8 E@ 7:8FC6 @FE H92E 92D 366? 28C665 E@[ H92E 92D?’E 366? 28C665 E@[ 2?5 H92E E96 5:776C6?E DE286D @7 ?68@E:2E:@?D 2C6 7@C 2== E96D6 5:776C6?E 4@F?EC:6D] p?5 E96 4@C? >2C<6E :D H2E49:?8 E92E[ 2D H6==]k^Am

kAm“~?6 4@F?ECJ x 2> >@DE 4@?46C?65 23@FE :D |6I:4@[ ;FDE 3642FD6 |6I:4@ :D @FC ?F>36C @?6 4@C? 3FJ6C 2?5 E92E’D @?6 H96C6 H6’G6 2=C625J 925 D@>6 EC256 D2?4E:@?D @G6C 4@C?] }@H[ E96 4FCC6?E |6I:42? 25>:?:DEC2E:@? 92D ?@E 366? 2D 288C6DD:G6 :? ECJ:?8 E@ =:>:E 4@C? :>A@CED[ H9:49 :D 2 8@@5 E9:?8[ 3FE :E’D DE:== D@>6E9:?8 E92E 282:?[ E96 >2C<6E :D 2?I:@FD 2?J E:>6 J@F DE2CE 3C:?8:?8 FA EC256 2?5 EC256 :DDF6D[” 96 D2:5]k^Am

kAmp?@E96C 4@F?ECJ @G6C E96 =2DE D6G6C2= 52JD E92E 92D C6DFC72465 2D 2 A@E6?E:2= 492==6?86 :D y2A2?[ H9:49 5@6D 3FJ 2 =@E @7 &]$] 4@C?[ 2D H6== 2D D@J362?D 2?5 H962E]k^Am

kAm“%96 %CF>A 25>:?:DEC2E:@? :D AFEE:?8 AC6DDFC6 @? y2A2? E@ ECJ 2?5 2==@H >@C6 :>A@CE2E:@? @7 &]$] C:46[ 2?5 E92E’D D@>6E9:?8 E92E E96 y2A2?6D6 92G6 AFD965 324< @? G6CJ 92C5 2?5 D2J:?8[ ‘}@[ H6’C6 ?@E 8@:?8 E@ 5@ E92E]’ %92E :D 2? 6I2>A=6 H96C6 28C:4F=EFC6 @C 28C:4F=EFC2= AC@5F4ED :D ?@H[ E2<:?8 46?E6C DE286 :? D@>6 @7 E96D6 EC256 ?68@E:2E:@?D[ H96E96C E92E DA:==D @G6C :?E@ @E96C 8C2:?D @C 4@>>@5:E:6D[ H6 5@?’E <?@H[” 96 D2:5]k^Am

kAm$F>>2C:K:?8[ ~=D@? D2:5 2== @7 E92E :?7@C>2E:@? 92D 2=C625J 366? 4@@<65 :?E@ E96 >2C<6EA=246] “%96 E9:?8D E92E x’> E2=<:?8 23@FE 2C6 2=C625J <?@H?[ E96J’C6 2=C625J 36:?8 5:D4FDD65[ E96D6 2C6 E9:?8D E92E H6’C6 H2E49:?8 G6CJ[ G6CJ 4=@D6=J[” 96 D2:5]k^Am

kAm“$9@CE E6C> 7@C E96 ?6IE 4@FA=6 H66<D[ 2D =@?8 2D E96 H62E96C :? E96 &]$] 9@=5D A@D:E:G6=J 2?5 H6 4@?E:?F6 E@ 92G6 8@@5 H62E96C 4@?5:E:@?D[ E96 A2E9 @7 =62DE C6D:DE2?46 H:== =:<6=J 36 =@H6C WAC:46DX] p82:?[ x 92E6 E@ D2J E92E[ 3FE H6’C6 =@@<:?8 2E 2 G6CJ 3:8 4C@A 2?5 A6@A=6 2C6 =@@<:?8 2C@F?5 2?5 D2J:?8[ ‘(96C6 H:== H6 86E C:5 @7 2== E9:D 6IEC2 4@C?]’ p?5 E96 @?6 >2C<6E E92E :D =2C86 6?@F89 2?5 566A 6?@F89 E@ 23D@C3 2 =@E @7 255:E:@?2= &]$] 4@C? :D E96 :?E6C?2E:@?2= >2C<6E[ E96 6IA@CE D2=6D[” 96 D2:5]k^Am

kAm“xE’D 92C5 E@ 8C@H @FC =:G6DE@4< 96C5D[ :E’D 92C5 E@ 8C@H E96 6E92?@= :?5FDECJ 72DE 6?@F89 E@ 4@>A6?D2E6 7@C 2 C62==J 3:8 4C@A :? @?6 J62C[” 96 4@?E:?F65] “$@[ :7 H6 92G6 E96 6IEC2 3FD96=D[ H96C6 5@ H6 ECJ E@ 86E C:5 @7 E96>n xE’D FDF2==J E96 6IA@CE >2C<6E[ 2?5 E92E’D H9J x’> 7@4FD:?8 D@ >F49 @? H92E’D 8@:?8 @? H:E9 E96 EC256 :DDF6D 2D H6== 2D H92E’D 92AA6?:?8 :? qC2K:=[ 3642FD6 qC2K:= :D 8@:?8 E@ 36 2 >2;@C 4@>A6E:E@C 7@C FD] u@C 3@E9 4@C? 2?5 D@J362?D[ WqC2K:=’DX 364@>6 2 3:8 A=2J6C[” ~=D@? 4@?4=F565]k^Am

kAm{@@<:?8 2E 4FCC6?E =@42= AC:46D[ 2E @?6 6=6G2E@C :? H6DE6C? |:??6D@E2 C68F=2C=J 7@==@H65 :? E9:D 4@=F>?[ 2D @7 yF=J `[ E96 yF=J 56=:G6CJ AC:46 H2D Sb]eh 2?5 32D:D H2D \bf 46?ED F?56C] %96 }@G6>36C a_ad 7FEFC6D AC:46 H2D =:DE65 2E Sc]aa 2?5 32D:D H2D \c 46?ED F?56C]k^Am