Bernt Nelson
American Farm Bureau Federation
The cattle market moves in cycles, usually lasting nine to 10 years. The current cycle is already in its 12th year, including its seventh year of contraction – the longest since the 1990-2004 cycle. The current feedback loop of inflated prices and the sale of beef cows for slaughter instead of breeding is creating an unprecedented updraft, leading to record prices and leaving it anyone’s guess when the cycle might return to Earth.
kAmkDEC@?8mr2EE=6 @? 7665 564C62D6k^DEC@?8mk^Am
kAm%96 &]$] s6A2CE>6?E @7 p8C:4F=EFC6 6DE:>2E65 42EE=6 2?5 42=G6D @? 7665 2D @7 |2C49 ` 2E ``]de >:==:@? 9625[ 2 564C62D6 @7 a A6C46?E 7C@> E96 AC6G:@FD J62C 2?5 D=:89E=J =6DD E92? 2G6C286 2?2=JDE 6IA64E2E:@?D] %96 >@?E9=J r2EE=6 @? u665 C6A@CE >62DFC6D 42EE=6 @? 7665 :? &]$] 7665=@ED H:E9 42A24:EJ @7 `[___ @C >@C6 9625 2D @7 E96 7:CDE @7 E96 >@?E9]k^Am
kAmxE H2D 2 G6CJ 3F==:D9 C6A@CE] !=246>6?ED @7 42EE=6 :?E@ 7665=@ED :? u63CF2CJ H6C6 `]dd >:==:@? 9625[ `g A6C46?E =6DD E92? 2E E96 D2>6 E:>6 :? a_ac – 2?5 E96 D>2==6DE ?F>36C 7@C 2?J >@?E9 D:?46 yF?6 a_`e] %96 564C62D6 H2D 2?E:4:A2E65 27E6C >@?E9D @7 6=6G2E65 A=246>6?ED E9C@F89 a_ac] r2EE=6 2G2:=23=6 E@ 36 A=2465 @? 7665 2C6 5:77:4F=E E@ 7:?5 2?5 7665=@E :?G6?E@C:6D 92G6 564=:?65 D:?46 E96 DE2CE @7 E96 J62C] %92E H:== =625 E@ 76H6C 765 42EE=6 36:?8 2G2:=23=6 7@C 3667 AC@5F4E:@? 5FC:?8 E96 DF>>6C >@?E9D H96? 3667 56>2?5 :D EJA:42==J E96 =2C86DE] %96 D92CA 564=:?6 4@F=5 36 E96 7:CDE D:8? @7 96C5 C63F:=5:?8 2?5 2? :?5:42E:@? E92E E96 4FCC6?E 42EE=6 4J4=6 :D 4@>:?8 E@ 2? 6?5] qFE :E’D ?@E 2 EJA:42= 42EE=6 4J4=6]k^Am
