Javascript is required to use this website.

Top Story

Climate-market changes loom in future

Jayson Beckman, Maros Ivanic and Noé J. Nava USDA
Oct 26, 2023
Oct 26, 2023

1 of 2

Estimating Market Implications From Corn and Soybean Yields Under Climate Change in the United States

A changing climate could affect corn and soybean yields, which could ultimately affect production and the availability of products for export.

USDA

Facebook
Twitter
Bluesky
WhatsApp
SMS
Email
Print
Save

Jayson Beckman, Maros Ivanic and Noé J. Nava USDA

The United States is one of the largest producers and exporters of corn and soybeans globally – partly because of yields that are among the best in the world. But a changing climate could affect those yields, which could ultimately affect production and the availability of products for export.

kAmx? E92E C6A@CE E96 2FE9@CD 6DE:>2E6 E92E &]$] 4@C? J:6=5D 4@F=5 :?4C62D6 b]` A6C46?E 2?5 D@J362? J:6=5D 4@F=5 564C62D6 b A6C46?E :? a_be C6=2E:G6 E@ a_`e[ 32D65 @? 4=:>2E6 AC@;64E:@?D] %9@D6 C6DF=ED 2C6 5C:G6? AC:>2C:=J 3J E96 :?4C62D65 7C6BF6?4J @7 A6C:@5D @7 6IEC6>6 962E 2?5 564=:?6D :? AC64:A:E2E:@? :? 4@F?¬E:6D 62DE @7 E96 `__E9 >6C:5:2? A2CE @7 E96 &?:E65 $E2E6D] %9@D6 6DE:>2E6D 2C6 E96? FD65 :? 2 D:>F=2E:@? >@56= E@ 6IA=@C6 >2C<6E :>A=:42E:@?D 7C@> E9@D6 J:6=5 AC@;64E:@?D] %96 C6DF=ED :?5:42E6 E92E J:6=5 492?86D 4@F=5 27764E &]$] AC@5F4E:@? 2?5 F=E:>2E6=J EC256] %96 6DE:>2E65 8C@HE9 :? &]$] 4@C? J:6=5D :?4C62D6D 4@C? AC@5F4E:@? E92E 4@F=5 F=E:>2E6=J 27764E E96 2>@F?E @7 4@C? E96 &?:E65 $E2E6D 92D 2G2:=23=6 E@ 6IA@CE] w@=5:?8 J:6=5D :? @E96C 4@F?EC:6D 7:I65[ E96 >@56= :?5:42E6D E92E &]$] 4@C? 6IA@CED :?4C62D6 _]be A6C46?E – E96 6BF:G2=6?E @7 Seb >:==:@?] %96 564=:?6 :? D@J362? J:6=5D 564C62D6D AC@5F4E:@?[ =625:?8 E@ 2 `]`f\A6C46?E 5C@A :? &]$] 6IA@CED – E96 6BF:G2=6?E @7 Sb`h >:==:@? – 32D65 @? a_`e 6IA@CED]k^Am

kAmx?E6C8@G6C?>6?E2= !2?6= @? r=:>2E6 r92?86 4=:>2E6 D46?2C:@D :?5:¬42E6 &]$] 4=:>2E6\A2EE6C? 492?86D DF49 2D :?4C62D:?8 E6>A6C2EFC6D 2?5 >:=5 564=:?6D :? AC64:A:E2E:@? E@H2C5 E96 >:55=6 @7 E96 a`DE 46?EFCJ] $@>6 @FE=@@<D 7@C E96 &?:E65 $E2E6D AC65:4E 564=:?6D :? 4C@A J:6=5D 5F6 E@ H2C>:?8 E6>A6C2EFC6D 2?5 E96 :?4C62D65 =:<6=:9@@5 @7 6IEC6>6\H62E96C 6G6?ED DF49 2D 5C@F89ED 2?5 7=@@5D[ DF886DE:?8 E92E &]$] 28C:4F=EFC2= AC@5F4E:@? 2?5 6IA@CED >:89E 36 27764E65] qFE E96C6 92G6 ?@E 366? >2?J DEF5:6D E92E 6I2>:?6 9@H A2DE J:6=5D 2?5 E96:C C6=2E:@?D9:A H:E9 H62E96C 4@F=5 96=A :?7@C> 7FEFC6 J:6=5D[ 2?5 9@H E92E 42? 27764E 28C:4F=EFC2= AC@5F4E:@? 2?5 6IA@CED]k^Am

kAm%C256 @FE=@@<D 2C6 @7E6? 4@?5F4E65 FD:?8 4=:>2E6 2?5 4C@A\>@56= D:>F=2E:@?D – DF49 2D E92E 7C@> E96 p8C:4F=EFC2= |@56= x?E6C4@>A2C:D@? 2?5 x>AC@G6>6?E !C@;64E – C2E96C E92? H@C< E92E =:?<D 9:DE@C:42= J:6=5D H:E9 9:DE@C:42= 492?86D :? 4=:>2E6[ DF49 2D E9@D6 4@>:?8 7C@> 64@?@>6EC:4 DEF5:6D] %96 2FE9@CD’ 2AAC@249 E@ 6DE:>2E:?8 J:6=5D :? E9:D C6A@CE :D 32D65 @? 9:DE@C:42= @FE4@>6D] %92E 2AAC@249 9:89=:89ED E96 ?665 E@ 4@?D:56C 52E2 2E 2 7:?6C C6D@=FE:@? 7@C E9@D6 52E2 2DD@4:2E65 H:E9 4=:>2E6 492?86[ 2D J:6=5 6DE:>2E6D G2CJ 3J 4@F?EJ]k^Am

kAmkDEC@?8m(92E 5:5 E96:C DEF5J 7:?5nk^DEC@?8mk^Am

kAm%96 2FE9@CD 6DE:>2E65 492?86D :? 4@C? 2?5 D@J362? J:6=5D :? a_be C6=2E:G6 E@ a_`e 7@C E96 4@F?E:6D 62DE @7 E96 `__E9 >6C:5:2? A2CE @7 E96 &?:E65 $E2E6D] %9@D6 6DE:>2E6D :?4@CA@C2E65 6G:56?46 C682C5:?8 E96 :?E6C24E:@? 36EH66? H62E96C G2C:2E:@?D 2?5 A2DE 4C@A\J:6=5 8C@HE9]k^Am

kF=mk=:m%96 5:C64E:@? 2?5 >28?:EF56 @7 4=:>2E6 67764ED G2CJ 3J &]$] 4@F?EJ]k^=:mk=:m#6DF=ED :?5:42E6 E92E :?4C62D:?8 E6>A6C2EFC6D H:== =:<6=J C6249 6IEC6>6 =6G6=D E92E 4@F=5 9:?56C 4C@A 8C@HE9 5FC:?8 E96 8C@H:?8 D62D@?]k^=:mk=:m$:>:=2C=J[ C6DF=ED :?5:42E6 E92E AC64:A:E2E:@? 5FC:?8 E96 8C@H:?8 D62D@? H:== =:<6=J 564=:?6 7FCE96C 2?5 27764E 4C@A 8C@HE9]k^=:mk^F=m

kAmrC@A\J:6=5 AC@;64E:@?D 9:89=:89E @AA@D:E6 67764ED 7@C 4@C? 2?5 D@J362?D]k^Am

kAm• r@C? J:6=5D :? E96 &?:E65 $E2E6D :?4C62D6 b]` A6C46?E :? 3FD96=D A6C 24C6]k^Am

kAm• $@J362? J:6=5D 564C62D6 b A6C46?E :? J:6=5D :? 3FD96=D A6C 24C6]k^Am

kAm%96 2?2=JD:D 4@?D:56C65 E96 >2:? 4@C?\ 2?5 D@J362?\8C@H:?8 C68:@?D[ H9:49 2C6 62DE @7 E96 `__E9 >6C:5:2? A2CE @7 E96 &?:E65 $E2E6D] *:6=5 AC@;64E:@?D G2C:65 3J C68:@?]k^Am

kAm• |:5H6DE6C? $E2E6D DF49 2D (:D4@?D:?[ x==:?@:D[ |:DD@FC: 2?5 x@H2 6IA6C:6?46 4C@A\J:6=5 82:?D @7 `]a A6C46?E 7@C D@J362?D 2?5 d]f A6C46?E 7@C 4@C?]k^Am

kAm• }@CE9 2?5 $@FE9 s2<@E2[ z2?D2D 2?5 }63C2D<2 6IA6C:6?46 D92CA 564=:?6D :? 4C@A J:6=5D @7 `c]d A6C46?E 7@C 4@C? 2?5 f]` A6C46?E 7@C D@J362?D]k^Am

kAm• x?5:2?2[ z6?EF4<J 2?5 %6??6DD66 6IA6C:6?46 J:6=5 82:?D 7@C 4@C? @7 d]c A6C46?E 2?5 J:6=5 564=:?6D 7@C D@J362?D @7 d]g A6C46?E]k^Am

kAmp 8=@32= 64@?@>:4 >@56= H2D FD65 E@ 6I2>:?6 9@H E9@D6 J:6=5 492?86D 4@F=5 27764E &]$] 28C:4F=EFC2= AC@5F4E:@? 2?5 EC256 A2EE6C?D]k^Am

kAm• !C@5F4E:@? :?4C62D6D _]`` A6C46?E 24C@DD 2== &]$] 4@C?\AC@5F4:?8 DE2E6D] %96 >@56= :?5:42E6D E92E AC@5F46CD 2==@42E6 =6DD =2?5 E@ 4@C? 5F6 E@ E96 :?4C62D6 :? J:6=5D] &]$] 4@C? 6IA@CED :?4C62D6 _]be A6C46?E[ E96 6BF:G2=6?E @7 Seb >:==:@? 32D65 @? a_`e 6IA@CED]k^Am

kAm• &]$] D@J362? AC@5F4E:@? 564C62D6D _]hb A6C46?E 5F6 E@ E96 564C62D6 :? J:6=5D[ H9:=6 6IA@CED 564=:?6 `]`f A6C46?E] !C@5F46CD 2==@42E6 >@C6 =2?5 E@ D@J362?D :? E96 >@56=[ E@ 4@>A6?D2E6 7@C E96 564C62D6 :? J:6=5D]k^Am

kAmkDEC@?8mw@H 5:5 E96J 4@?5F4E :Enk^DEC@?8mk^Am

kAm%96 2FE9@CD FD65 2 >F=E:DE6A 2AAC@249 E92E 4@??64ED 4C@A\J:6=5 AC@;64E:@?D F?56C 4=:>2E6 492?86 H:E9 2 8=@32= 64@?@>:4 >@56=] x? E96 7:CDE DE6A 2 “86@8C2A9:42==J H6:89E65 C68C6DD:@?” 6DE:>2E@C H2D FD65 E@ 6DE:>2E6 4@F?EJ\DA64:7:4 >2C8:?2= 67764ED @7 4=:>2E6 492?86 @? 4@C? 2?5 D@J362? J:6=5D 7@C 4@F?E:6D 62DE @7 E96 `__E9 >6C:5:2? A2CE @7 E96 &?:E65 $E2E6D] %96 6DE:>2E:@? AC@465FC6 2DDF>65 E92E 72C>6CD 252AE E@ 4=:>2E6 492?86 E9C@F89 ?6H E649?@=@8:6D[ 2?5 25@AE 5:776C6?E >2?286C:2= AC24E:46D 5FC:?8 E96 AC@;64E65 7FEFC6 A6C:@5 E92E 2C6 4@?D:D¬E6?E H:E9 5:776C6?46D :? J:6=5D 249:6G65 2D 4@>A2C65 E@ `hhe E@ a_`e]k^Am

kAm%96 DEF5J AC@;64ED @FE :?E@ a_be 2?5 D9@HD 9@H J:6=5D >:89E 492?86 32D65 @? 492?86D :? 4=:>2E:4 52E2] %96 2?2=¬JD:D :D 4@?5F4E65 :?56A6?56?E=J 7@C 6249 4C@A] x? E96 ?6IE DE6A[ E96 v=@32= %C256 p?2=JD:D !C@;64E\p8C@\t4@=@8:42= +@?6 64@?@>:4 >@56= :D :?EC@5F465[ H9:49 :?4@CA@C2E6D 28C@\64@=@8:42= K@?6D :?E@ E96 v=@32= %C256 p?2=JD:D !C@;64E 7C2>6H@C<] *:6=5 AC@;64E:@?D 2C6 :?4@CA@C2E65 :?E@ E96 v=@32= %C256 p?2=JD:D !C@;64E\p8C@\t4@=@8:42= +@?6 >@56= E@ DEF5J 9@H 5@>6DE:4 J:6=5 492?86D 4@F=5 27764E &]$] 28C:4F=EFC2= AC@5F4E:@? 2?5 EC256 H9:=6 9@=5:?8 EC25:?8\A2CE?6C J:6=5D 4@?DE2?E] %92E :D[ E96 67764E @7 4=:>2E6 492?86 @? AC@5F4E:@? :D 96=5 4@?DE2?E :? E96 C6DE @7 E96 H@C=5 E@ 2?2=JK6 9@H EC256 :D 27764E65 3J AC@;64E65 &]$] AC@5F4E:@? C6DA@?D6D E@ AC@;64E65 4=:>2E6 492?86]k^Am

kAmkDEC@?8mx?EC@5F4E:@?k^DEC@?8mk^Am

kAm&]$] 4@C? 2?5 D@J362? AC@5F4E:@? 6IA6C:6?465 DE625J 82:?D :? 28C:4F=EFC2= AC@5F4E:G:EJ 5FC:?8 E96 A2DE E9C66 564256D 5F6 E@ 24C6286 6IA2?D:@? 2?5 E649?@=@8J 25@AE:@?]k^Am

kAm• &]$] AC@5F4E:@? @7 4@C? H2D ``_ 3FD96=D A6C 24C6 :? `hha[ C6249:?8 `ff 3FD96=D A6C 24C6 :? a_a_]k^Am

kAm• &]$] AC@5F4E:@? @7 D@J362?D H2D bb 3FD96=D A6C 24C6 :? `hha[ C6249:?8 da 3FD96=D A6C 24C6 :? a_a_[ EFC?:?8 E96 &?:E65 $E2E6D :?E@ 2 H@C=5\=625:?8 AC@5F46C @7 4@C? 2?5 D@J362?D]k^Am

kAm• x? a_a_ E96 &?:E65 $E2E6D AC@5F465 be_ >:==:@? E@?D @7 4@C?[ 4@?EC:3FE:?8 >@C6 E@ E96 8=@32= DFAA=J E92? r9:?2[ x?5:2 2?5 #FDD:2 4@>3:?65]k^Am

kAm• %96 &?:E65 $E2E6D AC@5F465 `af >:==:@? E@?D @7 D@J362?D :? a_a_[ H9:49 H2D DFCA2DD65 3J qC2K:=’D `ch >:==:@? E@?D :? a_a_]k^Am

kAmr@C? 2?5 D@J362?D 2C6 2=D@ :>A@CE2?E 6IA@CE 4@>>@5:E:6D 7@C E96 &?:E65 $E2E6D] %C25:E:@?2==J D@J362? 6IA@CED H6C6 E96 8C62E6DE\G2=F6 &]$] 6IA@CED[ 244@F?E:?8 7@C 36EH66? `` A6C46?E 2?5 `f A6C46?E @7 2== &]$] 28C:4F=EFC2= 6IA@CED 7C@> a_`f E@ a_a`] r@C? EC25:E:@?2==J 92D 366? :? E96 E@A\7:G6 @7 2== 28C:4F=¬EFC2= 4@>>@5:E:6D 6IA@CE65] x? a_a` 4@C?’D 6IA@CE G2=F6 @7 S`g]f 3:==:@? H2D D64@?5 @?=J E@ D@J362?D 2E Saf]c 3:==:@?] r@>3:?65[ E96 EH@ 4@>>@5:E:6D 244@F?E65 7@C ae A6C46?E @7 2== &]$] 28C:4F=EFC2=\4@>>@5:EJ 6IA@CED :? a_a`]k^Am

kAm%96 :?4C62D6 :? &]$] 4@C? 2?5 D@J362? AC@5F4E:G:EJ 92D 366? A2CE:2==J 249:6G65 3J :?4C62D:?8 J:6=5D] &]$] 4@C? J:6=5D 92G6 366? 8C@H:?8 D:?46 E96 =2E6 `hb_D[ 2?5 6G:56?46 DF886DED E92E E96J 2C6 :?4C62D:?8 36EH66? `]h 2?5 a 3FD96=D A6C J62C] $49?:E<6J 6E 2=] C6D62C49 A@:?ED @FE E92E &]$] D@J362? J:6=5D 92G6 366? :?4C62D:?8 E9C@F89 E:>6[ 2=E9@F89 3@E9 4@C? 2?5 D@J362?D J:6=5D 7@C E96 &?:E65 $E2E6D 564C62D65 :? a_aa C6=2E:G6 E@ E96 EC6?5D AC@;64E65 :? E96:C C6A@CE]k^Am

kAmkDEC@?8mr@>A2C6 AC@5F4E:G:EJ E@ J:6=5Dk^DEC@?8mk^Am

kAm*:6=5D 2C6 2 A2CE @7 2 3C@256C >62DFC6 @7 AC@5F4E:G:EJ[ H9:49 :D @7E6? =236=65 2D E@E2= 724E@C AC@5F4E:G:EJ] %@E2= 724E@C AC@5F4E:G:EJ 244@F?ED 7@C 2 =2C86C D6E @7 :?AFED :?E@ AC@5F4E:@? 2?5 4@?D:56CD E649?:42=\677:4:6?4J 492?86] %96 52E2 AC6D6?E65 3J E96 &]$] s6A2CE>6?E @7 p8C:4F=EFC6’D t4@?@>:4 #6D62C49 $6CG:46 7@C E96 &?:E65 $E2E6D 2?5 7@C E96 C6DE @7 E96 H@C=5 2C6 D@>6 6I2>A=6D @7 52E2 @? E@E2= 724E@C AC@5F4E:G:EJ] qFE E@E2= 724E@C AC@5F4E:G:EJ 3J 28C:4F=EFC2= 4@>>@5:EJ :D 5:77:4F=E E@ >62DFC6] pD DF49[ J:6=5D 2C6 @7E6? FD65 2D 2 >62DFC6 @7 28C:4F=EFC6 AC@5F4E:G:EJ] x? 2 3C@25 D6?D6 J:6=5D >62DFC6 E96 BF2?E:EJ @7 4C@AD 8C@H? @? 2? 2>@F?E @7 =2?5]k^Am

kAmp=@?8 H:E9 24C6286 A=2?E65[ AC@5F4E:G:EJ 56E6C>:?6D E96 492?86D :? AC@5F4E:@? E@ E96 28C:4F=EFC2= D64E@C] %92E :D[ 24C6286 A=2?E65 42? C6>2:? E96 D2>6[ 2?5 2? :?4C62D6 :? AC@5F4E:G:EJ H:== :?4C62D6 E96 2>@F?E @7 28C:4F=EFC2= AC@5F4E:@?] v:G6? E92E C6D62C49 =:E6C2EFC6 @7E6? 7@4FD6D @? J:6=5D H96? 5:D4FDD:?8 9@H 2 7FEFC6 4=:>2E6 >:89E 27764E 28C:4F=EFC2= >2C<6ED[ E96 2FE9@CD @7 E9:D C6A@CE 5@ E96 D2>6]k^Am

kAm%96 >@DE C646?E x?E6C8@G6C?>6?E2= !2?6= @? r=:>2E6 r92?86 C6A@CE ?@E65 E92E E96 A=2?6E H:== 4@?E:?F6 E@ H2C> 2?5 6IA6C:6?46 >@C6\7C6BF6?E 6IEC6>6 H62E96C 6G6?ED] }F>6C@FD 28C:4F=EFC2= @FE=@@<D DF886DE E9@D6 492?86D :? E96 4=:>2E6 H:== =:<6=J 42FD6 28C:4F=EFC2= AC@5F4E:G:EJ 2?5 J:6=5D E@ 564=:?6 E@H2C5 E96 >:55=6 @7 E96 46?EFCJ] %96J ?@E6 E92E 2? :?4C62D6 :? E96 7C6BF6?4J @7 6IEC6>6\H62E96C 6G6?ED DF49 2D 5C@F89ED[ 7=@@5D 2?5 962E¬H2G6D 2D H6== 2D D9:7ED :? 4=:>2E:4 4@?5:E:@?D >2J AC6G6?E E96 @AE:>2= 8C@HE9 @7 D@>6 4C@AD] qFE E96 67764ED @7 4=:>2E6 492?86 @? J:6=5D 2C6 6IA64E65 E@ 5:776C 24C@DD 4@>>@5:E:6D] u@C 6I2>A=6 @?6 DEF5J 6DE:>2E6D 8=@32= C:46 J:6=5D H:== =:<6=J 564C62D6 b]b A6C46?E 4@>A2C65 E@ b]e A6C46?E 7@C D@J362?D[ e]h A6C46?E 7@C H962E 2?5 g]e A6C46?E 7@C 4@C? 2D 2 C6DF=E @7 2 a\568C66 r6=D:FD :?4C62D6 :? 8=@32= >62? E6>A6C2EFC6 7C@> a_ah E@ a_dg]k^Am

People are also reading…

Missouri cowgirl bakes to fund her trick-riding ambitions
Finding her niche on family farm: Newman Grove farm wife builds pork business
Meristem focuses on reducing crop input costs for farmers
Variety of fencing meets needs on the farm
Fast-Dohrmann-Strommen 55th Annual Production Sale
Eichacker Simmentals & JK Angus
Effertz Key Ranch 48th Annual Bull Sale
Highmore cattleman elected to American Simmental board
Berwald Red Angus 4th Annual Bull & Female Sale
Helping wildfire victims, the Nebraska way
Heart River Ranch Annual Production Sale
Wildfires: Yearning to help, prompted to plan
First South Dakotan named chairman of U.S. Soybean Export Council
'We need more first-generation farmers'
Spring wheat market seeing upward price movement

kAmp 492?8:?8 4=:>2E6 4@F=5 27764E E96 &]$] DE2?5:?8 2D 2 8=@32= =6256C :? 28C:4F=EFC2= AC@5F4E:@? 2?5 EC256] x7 4=:>2E6 492?86 27764ED J:6=5D[ :E H:== F=E:>2E6=J 27764E 9@H >F49 E96 &?:E65 $E2E6D 42? 8C@H 2?5 6IA@CE] p=E9@F89 E96C6 :D 2 8@@5 562= @7 :?7@C>2E:@? @? J:6=5D 2?5 J:6=5 AC@;64E:@?D :? E96 C6D62C49 =:E6C2EFC6[ >F49 @7 :E :D ?@E G6CJ 56E2:=65 – @7E6? AC@G:5:?8 E96 492?86 :? J:6=5 3J E96 H9@=6 4@F?ECJ] qFE J:6=5 492?86D 42? 36 2?5 H:== 36 96E6C@86?@FD[ 56A6?5:?8 @? H96C6 4C@AD 2C6 8C@H? 2?5 E96 AC@;64E65 492?86 :? 4=:>2E6 7@C E92E 2C62]k^Am

kAm%@ 7F==J F?56CDE2?5 E96 A@E6?E:2= 67764ED E@ E96 &?:E65 $E2E6D[ 2 >@C6 56E2:=65 A:4EFC6 @7 J:6=5 492?86D :D ?66565] %96 2FE9@CD 6DE:>2E65 A@E6?E:2= 492?86D E@ 4@C? 2?5 D@J362? J:6=5D 3J 4@F?EJ[ 4@?D:56C:?8 5:776C6?46D :? H62E96C 7@C 6249 2C62] &D:?8 2 >:55=6\@7\E96\C@25 x?E6C8@G6C?>6?E2= !2?6= @? r=:>2E6 r92?86 4=:>2E6 D46?2C:@ 7@C a_be[ E92E C6A@CE 4@??64ED 4=:>2E6\:?5F465 4C@A\J:6=5 AC@;64E:@?D H:E9 2 4@>AFE23=6 86?6C2= 6BF:=:3C:F> >@56= E@ 56E6C>:?6 9@H &]$] >2C<6ED 2?5 EC256 4@F=5 36 27764E65 3J 2 492?8:?8 4=:>2E6]k^Am

kAmkDEC@?8ms2E2 FD6 56E2:=65k^DEC@?8mk^Am

kAms2E2 7@C E9:D DEF5J 42>6 7C@> E9C66 >2:? D@FC46D]k^Am

kAm• s2E2 7@C 4@C? 2?5 D@J362? J:6=5D 4@>6 7C@> E96 &$sp’D J62C=J DFCG6J @? 4C@A J:6=5D] %9@D6 ?F>36CD H6C6 86?6C2E65 3J 5:G:5:?8 E@E2= 3FD96=D A6C E@E2= 24C6286 7@C 6249 @7 E96 4@F?E:6D 4@?D:56C65 :? E92E C6A@CE]k^Am

kAm• w:DE@C:42= H62E96C 52E2 H6C6 4@==64E65 7C@> E96 !2C2>6E6C\6=6G2E:@? #68C6DD:@?D @? x?56A6?56?E $=@A6D |@56=] s2:=J >:?:>F> E6>A6C2EFC6[ >2I:>F> E6>A6C2EFC6[ 2?5 E@E2= AC64:A:E2¬E:@? E@ 4@?DECF4E 28C@?@>J\C6=6G2?E 962E 2?5 9F>:5:EJ :?5:42E@CD H6C6 82E96C65] %96 962E >62DFC6 H2D 32D65 @? E96 4F>F=2E:G6\8C@H:?8\568C66\52JD 2?5 6IEC6>6\568C66\52JD E6>A6C2¬EFC6] %96 E6>A6C2EFC6 @7 b_ 568C66D r6=D:FD H2D FD65 2D E96 >62DFC6 @7 4F>F=2E:G6 8C@H:?8\568C66 52JD 3642FD6 E6>A6C2EFC6D H2C>6C E92? E92E 42? 36 DEC6DD7F= E@ 4@C? A=2?ED] $@J362?D 42? 6IA6C:6?46 962E DEC6DD 2E ah]c 568C66D r6=D:FD] %96 >62DFC6 @7 AC64:A:¬E2E:@? H2D 4F>F=2E:G6 AC64:A:E2E:@? 5FC:?8 E96 8C@H:?8 D62D@?] x? 4@?EC2DE E@ 4F>F=2E:G6 8C@H:?8\568C66 52JD 2?5 6IEC6>6\568C66 52JD[ H9:49 92G6 E9C6D9@=5D E92E 5:G:56 8C@H:?8 E6>A6C2EFC6 7C@> 92C>7F= E6>A6C2EFC6[ AC64:A:E2E:@? 5@6D ?@E 92G6 DF49 2 E9C6D9@=5] $@ E96 D2>6 2AAC@249 H2D FD65 2D :? AC6G:@FD DEF5:6D 2?5 7@4FD65 @? 4F>F=2¬E:G6 AC64:A:E2E:@?]k^Am

kAm• %96 4=:>2E6 D46?2C:@ FD65 7FEFC6 H62E96C 7@C642DED 6>A=@J65 :? E96 >@DE C646?E x?E6C8@G6C?>6?E2= !2?6= @? r=:>2E6 r92?86 C6A@CE[ H9:49 2DDF>6D :?4C62D6D :? 8=@32= E6>A6C2EFC6 @7 `]d E@ b 568C66D r6=D:FD H2C>6C E92? AC6\:?5FDEC:2= =6G6=D] %96 }2E:@?2= p6C@?2FE:4D 2?5 $A246 p5>:?:DEC2E:@? 4@==64ED 2?5 >2<6D 2G2:=23=6 2== H62E96C\7@C642DE D:>F=2E:@?D 6>A=@J65 :? E96 >@DE C646?E x?E6C8@G6C?>6?E2= !2?6= @? r=:>2E6 r92?86 C6A@CE E9C@F89 :ED }p$p t2CE9 tI492?86 v=@32= s2:=J s@H?D42=65 !C@;64E:@?D 52E2¬32D6] %96 49@D6? 4=:>2E6 >@56=D 2C6 <?@H? 2D r2?t$|d[ %2:t$|a[ |x#~e 2?5 prrt$$\r|a] %96J’C6 32D65 @? E96 “>:55=6 @7 E96 C@25” 2DDF>AE:@?D 7@C E96 $92C65 $@4:@64@?@>:4 !2E9H2J 4=:>2E6 D46?2C:@ E92E 4@?D:56CD >@56C2E6 25;FDE>6?ED E@ E96 64@?@>J E92E 92G6 2 >65:F>\=6G6= 4=:>2E6\492?86 >:E:82E:@? 67764E C6=2E:G6 E@ >@C6 288C6DD:G6 $92C65 $@4:@64@?@>:4 !2E9H2JD] s6DA:E6 E92E 2== 4=:>2E6 >@56=D 2C6 32D65 @? E96 D2>6 7F?52>6?E2= 2DDF>AE:@? AC6G:@FD=J 56D4C:365[ E9@D6 >@56=D >2J AC@5F46 D=:89E=J 5:776C6?E C6DF=ED 32D65 @? E96 6>A:C:42= 564:D:@?D >256 3J 4=:>2E6 D4:6?E:DED] %96C67@C6 H62E96C G2C:23=6D 2C6 AC@46DD65 H9:=6 4@?D:56C:?8 E96 F?:E @7 >62DFC6 >2J 492?86 24C@DD 52E2 D@FC46D 3J 2G6C28:?8 E96 C6DF=ED 7C@> 6249 @7 E9@D6 4=:>2E6 >@56=D]k^Am

kAmkDEC@?8m{@@< 2E J:6=5D 7C@> `hhe E@ a_`ek^DEC@?8mk^Am

kAm&]$] 72C>6CD 2C6 2>@?8 E96 >@DE AC@5F4E:G6 8=@32==J A2CE=J 3642FD6 @7 J:6=5D E92E 2C6 2>@?8 E96 36DE :? E96 H@C=5] u@C 6I2>A=6 52E2 7C@> E96 u@@5 2?5 p8C:4F=EFC6 ~C82?:K2E:@? @7 E96 &?:E65 }2E:@?D :?5:42E6 E92E &]$] 4@C? J:6=5D 2C6 E96 36DE :? E96 H@C=5 – `ff 3FD96=D A6C 24C6] r@C? J:6=5D 7@C r9:?2[ E96 D64@?5\=2C86DE AC@5F46C[ H6C6 hb]hg 3FD96=D A6C 24C6] $@J362? J:6=5D 2C6 >@C6 4@>A2C23=6 2>@?8 >2;@C AC@5F46CD[ 3FE E96 &?:E65 $E2E6D DE:== 925 E96 =2C86DE J:6=5D 2E da 3FD96=D A6C 24C6 G6CDFD cg]ff 3FD96=D A6C 24C6 7@C qC2K:=[ E96 D64@?5\>@DE AC@5F4E:G6 D@J362? AC@5F46C]k^Am

kAmu:8FC6 ` :?5:42E6D E92E &]$] 4@C? 2?5 D@J362? J:6=5D 92G6 :?4C62D65 E9C@F89 E:>6] r@C? 2?5 D@J362? J:6=5D 92G6 5@F3=65 D:?46 `hf_[ 3FE E96C6 92D 366? D@>6H92E @7 2 A=2E62F:?8 7@C E96 =2DE 4@FA=6 @7 J62CD] $49?:E<6JVD C6D62C49 :? a_aa 2EEC:3FE6D E92E E@ 5C@F89E :? D@>6 DE2E6D 2?5 =24<=FDE6C J:6=5D :? @E96CD] %92E C6A@CE’D 2FE9@CD ?@E65 E92E 5C@F89E 4@F=5 36 2 7F?4E:@? @7 2 492?8:?8 4=:>2E6]k^Am

Download PDF

kAms6DA:E6 E96 @G6C2== :?4C62D6 :? &]$] 4@C? 2?5 D@J362? J:6=5D[ E96J 2C6 ?@E F?:7@C> 24C@DD 2== $E2E6D 2?5 24C@DD E:>6] %@ D9@H E92E[ u:8FC6 a 56D4C:36D E96 DA2E:2= 5:DEC:3FE:@? @7 492?86D :? 4@C? 2?5 D@J362? J:6=5D 7C@> `hhe E@ a_`e]k^Am

kAm• (9:=6 D@>6 &]$] 4@F?E:6D 925 2 564C62D6 :? 4@C? 2?5 D@J362? J:6=5D 36EH66? `hhe 2?5 a_`e – >@DE ?@E:4623=J :? ~<=29@>2 2?5 z2?D2D – >@DE 4@F?E:6D’ :?4C62D6 H2D 36EH66? ad A6C46?E 2?5 d_ A6C46?E]k^Am

kAm• %96 FAA6C A2CED @7 E96 |:5H6DE – 6DA64:2==J x==:?@:D[ x@H2 2?5 |:??6D@E2 – 925 4C@A\J:6=5 :>AC@G6>6?ED] r@F?E:6D :? E9@D6 C68:@?D 2C6 EC25:E:@?2==J =2C86 AC@5F46CD @7 46C62=D 2?5 @:=D665]k^Am

kAm• ~?=J 2 92?57F= @7 4@F?E:6D – @?6 :? }@CE9 s2<@E2 2?5 2 76H :? p=232>2[ v6@C8:2 2?5 $@FE9 r2C@=:?2 – 6IA6C:6?465 4C@A\J:6=5 8C@HE9 @7 >@C6 E92? `__ A6C46?E]k^Am

kAm• x? 4@?EC2DE[ D@J362?\J:6=5 8C@HE9 @7 >@C6 E92? `__ A6C46?E :D 7@F?5 2=@?8 E96 |:DD:DD:AA: s6=E2[ H:E9 2 76H 6I46AE:@?D @FED:56 E92E C68:@?]k^Am

kAmu@C E9:D C6A@CE 4@F?E:6D H6C6 5C@AA65 :7 E96J 5:5?’E AC@5F46 4@C? @C D@J362?D :? 6:E96C `hhe[ a_`e @C 3@E9 J62CD] u=@C:52 2?5 D@>6 }6H t?8=2?5 $E2E6D H6C6 ?@E 2?2=JK65 3642FD6 E96 &$sp 5:5?’E C6A@CE 4@C? 2?5 D@J362? AC@5F4E:@? :? E9@D6 DE2E6D 5FC:?8 E96 2?2=JD:D J62CD]k^Am

Download PDF

kAmkDEC@?8m{@@< 2E A2DE[ 7FEFC6 H62E96Ck^DEC@?8mk^Am

kAmp44@C5:?8 E@ $49?:E<6J’D a_aa C6D62C49[ A2CE @7 E96 A=2E62F:?8 @7 C646?E 4@C? 2?5 D@J362? J:6=5D :D 5F6 E@ 5C@F89E :? D@>6 DE2E6D] pD D9@H? :? u:8FC6 `[ E96 =2C86DE 564C62D6 :? J:6=5D D:?46 `hgg H2D :? a_`a[ H9:49 H2D 5F6 E@ 2 =2C86\D42=6 5C@F89E :? >2?J DE2E6D %@ 6I2>:?6 9@H H62E96C 92D 492?865 E9C@F89 E:>6 2?5 9@H :E >:89E 492?86 :? E96 7FEFC6[ u:8FC6 b D9@HD H2C>:?8 492C24E6C:DE:4D 7@C 4@F?E:6D 62DE @7 E96 `__E9 >6C:5:2? A2CE @7 E96 &?:E65 $E2E6D[ H96C6 E96 >2;@C:EJ @7 4@C? 2?5 D@J362?D 2C6 8C@H?] %96 7:CDE A=@E :==FDEC2E6D 8C@H:?8\568C66 52JD 2?5 E96 D64@?5 A=@E :==FDEC2E6D 6IEC6>6\568C66 52JD] #682C5:?8 E96 C65 5:DEC:3FE:@? 2D 2 C676C6?46 – `hha – E96 =:?6 EC2;64E@CJ :D D<6H65 E@ E96 =67E :? C6=2E:@? E@ E96 C6DE @7 E96 J62CD :? 3@E9 :==FDEC2E:@?D] %92E :?5:42E6D `hha H2D ?@E 2 A2CE:4F=2C=J 9@E J62C] %96 =@H6C A62< 2=D@ :?5:42E6D 9@H C6=2E:G6=J 4@=5 `hha H2D]k^Am

Download PDF

kAm}6G6CE96=6DD 2D E:>6 A2DD6D 2== E96 5:DEC:3FE:@?D ?@E65 :? E96 492CED :? u:8FC6 b D9:7E E@ E96 C:89E H:E9 9:896C A62<D[ :==FDEC2E:?8 E92E :?4C62D:?8 E6>A6C2EFC6D 2C6 364@>:?8 2 ?6H ?@C>] uFCE96C>@C6[ 2 3F?49:?8 @7 G2=F6D 42? 36 @3D6CG65 @? E96 C:89E D:56 @7 E96 E@A 492CE[ >62?:?8 E92E E96 E9C6D9@=5 @7 b_ 568C66D r6=D:FD :D 36:?8 DFCA2DD65[ 2?5 6IEC6>6\568C66 52JD :? E96 3@EE@> 492CE 4@?E:?F6 E@ D9:7E E@ E96 C:89E] p? :>A@CE2?E :?D:89E E@ 5C2H 7C@> E92E 7:8FC6 :D E92E 6IEC6>6 962E >2J 364@>6 2 ?@C> :? E96 ?6IE 564256]k^Am

kAmx? u:8FC6 c E96 2FE9@CD A=@E 492?86D :? E96 9:DE@C:42= 4=:>2E6 2?5 7@C642DE65 4=:>2E6 7@C 4F>F=2E:G6 8C@H:?8\568C66 52JD[ E@A =67E[ 6IEC6>6\568C66 52JD[ E@A C:89E[ AC64:A:E2E:@? @7 =6DD E92? d_ 4F3:4 46?E:>6E6CD[ 3@EE@>\=67E[ 2?5 AC64:A:E2E:@? @7 >@C6 E92? d_ 4F3:4 46?E:>6E6CD[ 3@EE@> C:89E] x?4C62D:?8 E6>A6C2EFC6D H6C6 @3D6CG65 E@ 92G6 EH@ @AA@D:E6 >62DFC6D @7 962E 4C@AD’ 8C@HE9]k^Am

kAm• 2 A@D:E:G6 @?6 2D >62DFC65 3J 4F>F=2E:G6 8C@H:?8\568C66 52JDk^Am

kAm• 2 ?682E:G6 @?6 2D >62DFC65 3J 6IEC6>6\568C66 52JDk^Am

kAm%96 2FE9@CD ?@E65 2? 23D@=FE6 :?4C62D6 :? E96 E@E2= ?F>36C @7 4F>F=2E:G6 8C@H:?8\568C66 52JD 7@C >@DE &]$] 4@F?E:6D[ 6I46AE 7@C D@>6 4@F?E:6D :? p=232>2[ ':C8:?:2 2?5 %6??6DD66] qFE E9@D6 492?86D 2C6 C6=2E:G6=J D>2==[ 36:?8 2D D>2== 2D \g_ H9:=6 E96 :?4C62D6D :? 8C@H:?8\568C66 52JD @3D6CG65 :? E96 C6DE @7 E96 4@F?ECJ 42? 36 2D >F49 2D had H:E9 2 >62? @7 ae_] r@F?E:6D E92E AC6D6?E 2 564=:?6 :? 8C@H:?8\568C66 52JD[ 2=@?8 H:E9 :?4C62D6D :? 6IEC6>6\568C66 52JD[ AC6D6?E 2? 6I46AE:@?2= A2EE6C? @7 4@@=6C 2G6C286 E6>A6C2EFC6D 5FC:?8 E96 52J[ H:E9 >@C6 9@E 52JD 23@G6 9:DE@C:42= C64@C5D]k^Am

kAm$:>:=2C=J[ 6IEC6>6\568C66 52JD H:== :?4C62D6 7@C 2 =2C86 A2CE @7 4@F?E:6D 62DE @7 E96 `__E9 >6C:5:2? A2CE @7 E96 &?:E65 $E2E6D] qFE E96 6IEC6>6\568C66\52JD :?4C62D6 :D D>2== H:E9 2 >62? @7 c 2?5 2 9:89 @7 `fc] tIEC6>6\568C66\52JD :?4C62D6D H:== 36 E96 >@DE 7@C E96 $@FE96C? &?:E65 $E2E6D] w2G:?8 76H6C 6IEC6>6\568C66 52JD 2?5 >@C6 8C@H:?8\568C66 52JD :? E96 }@CE96C? &?:E65 $E2E6D :?5:42E6D E92E H9:=6 E96 4=:>2E6 H:== 364@>6 H2C>6C[ 52JD H:E9 6IEC6>6 962E H:== @44FC =6DD @7E6? :? a_be] (96? :E 4@>6D E@ AC64:A:E2E:@?[ E96 52E2 :?5:42E6 E92E >@DE @7 E96 &?:E65 $E2E6D H:== 6IA6C:6?46 564=:?6D :? AC64:A:E2E:@? 2D >2?:76DE65 :? 3@E9 >62DFC6D @7 AC64:A:E2E:@? 564C62D:?8 H:E9 76H 6I46AE:@?D 24C@DD E96 4@F?ECJ]k^Am

Download PDF

kAmkDEC@?8muFEFC6\4=:>2E6 52E2 4@?D:56C65k^DEC@?8mk^Am

kAmx? E9:D C6A@CE E96 2FE9@CD 7@4FD65 @? E96 4=:>2E6 D46?2C:@ @7E6? C676CC65 E@ 2D E96 “>:55=6 @7 E96 C@25” $92C65 $@4:@64@?@>:4 !2E9H2J E92E 244@F?ED 7@C >65:F> 492==6?86D E@ >:E:82E:@? 2?5 25@AE:@? @7 6?G:C@?>6?E2==J DFDE2:?23=6 AC24E:46D] s:776C6?46D :? >@56=D[ 32D65 @? E96 D2>6 $92C65 $@4:@64@?@>:4 !2E9H2J 2DDF>AE:@?[ 2C6 5C:G6? 3J 564:D:@?D @? E96 A2CE @7 4=:>2E6 D4:6?E:DED’ >@56= D6=64E:@?] u:8FC6 d :==FDEC2E6D 7@C642DE65 8C@H:?8\568C66 52JD :? E96 E@A 492CE[ 6IEC6>6\568C66 52JD :? E96 >:55=6 492CE 2?5 AC64:A:E2E:@? :? E96 3@EE@> 492CE 3J E96 J62C a_be[ H96C6 6249 5:DEC:3FE:@? C6AC6D6?ED 2 4=:>2E6 >@56=] %96 2FE9@CD 5:5 ?@E 7:?5 D:8?:7:42?E 5:776C6?46D 24C@DD E96 4=:>2E6 >@56=D]k^Am

kAms6DA:E6 E92E[ E96 2FE9@CD >256 E96 6>A:C:42= 564:D:@? @7 9@H E@ AC@46DD 2== E96 52E2] %96 2FE9@CD 7@==@H65 4@>>@? AC24E:46D 25@AE65 3J 64@?@>:4 AC24E:E:@?6CD] %96 2FE9@CD C64@8?:K6 E92E 2== >@56=D @?=J AC6D6?E @?6 G2=F6 A6C 86@8C2A9:42= @3D6CG2E:@? DF49 E92E 5:776C6?46D :? E96 >@56=D 2C6 5C:G6? 3J >@56= D6=64E:@? – :]6][ ?@ >@56= :D 36EE6C E92? E96 @E96C] %96 2FE9@CD 2G6C2865 6249 >@56= @3D6CG2E:@? 24C@DD 6249 86@8C2A9:42= 2C62 E@ AC@5F46 E96 4=:>2E6 7@C642DE] %92E 2AAC@249 92D 366? FD65 6IE6?D:G6=J :? E96 =:E6C2EFC6]k^Am

Download PDF

kAmk6>m%@ 36 4@?E:?F65 …k^6>mk^Am

Jayson Beckman, Maros Ivanic and Noé J. Nava are agricultural economists with the Market and Trade Economics Division of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service.