There’s no doubt that the Central Plains and areas to the south are short on water after last year. What does that mean for spring planting and making sure the crop gets enough moisture to grow this season?

The most recent significant drought many remember occurred in 2012. By way of comparison, how did last year’s drought stack up to the serious dry spell of 11 years ago?

Some people think last year was quite a bit worse.

“I would say 2022 was worse,” said Nick Schroth, an agronomist and regional manager with Wilbur-Ellis in Plainview, Nebraska. “That’s only because we were in a drought when spring began last year. There was no significant moisture through the winter. At the very least, in 2012, we’d had some moisture to start that spring.”

An area like northeastern Nebraska might be somewhat protected from drought by irrigation. However, there’s much more dryland in southern Nebraska and much sandier soil in the western part of the state.

Heading south from Nebraska, things are significantly dry as well. Further north, states like North Dakota and South Dakota, Minnesota, and southern Iowa also felt significant effects of the 2022 drought. But they have gotten more precipitation through the winter than areas south of Nebraska.

“Even with the areas that did get some moisture, no areas are coming into the season with a full soil moisture profile and no limits on irrigation,” Schroth said. “We’re still going to have a fight on our hands.”

So where does this leave the farmers who need water to grow crops in 2023? Schroth said the answer will greatly depend on their input decisions and what they want for a yield goal. Farmers recently aiming for 220-230 bushels an acre for corn may want to shoot for 10-20% below that.

“The drought will probably influence their hybrid selection and the inputs needed,” he said. “They’ll likely look at more drought-tolerant hybrids. It may also change their crop selection. We might see more small grains that utilize less water than corn and soybeans.”

A number of farmers’ choices will depend on how tightly water is regulated by natural resources districts in many of the drier states if the drought continues. There will likely be some split pivots to help utilize the available water given to farmers.

Further south in the plains, Aaron Voight, a field technology specialist for Wilbur-Ellis in the Texas Panhandle, says the cropping structure and rotations are getting “more dire.” When farmers are starting with little-to-no moisture in the soil profile, that’s when management decisions need to be especially solid.

“Don’t overplant what you can care for,” Voight said. “In my territories, certain areas are leaning away from corn this year. I even have some farmers in western Texas that are putting up fences and planting grass.”

There may be more split pivots this year, a concept that Schroth says many farmers are already taking a serious look at. A normal irrigation unit covers a circle of 135-140 acres that are planted to one crop like corn. However, water shortages may change that this year.

“If you’re going to be limited on water usage and you need to pump 15-18 inches of water on top of the rainfall to grow that corn crop, you might not have enough available,” Schroth said. “That might mean planting 65 acres of corn and 60-65 acres of oats, rye, or maybe turning it into a pasture. Split the main crops with something that wouldn’t require as much water.”

Alix York is an agronomist with Wilbur-Ellis and is based in Orchard, Nebraska. He says those dry-weather-induced rotation switches have been taking place in western Nebraska for the last few years. Farmers have been restricted on water, and they’ve found it makes more financial sense to grow small grains like rye, oats, wheat or millet.

“If a guy decides to put rye in, they obviously won’t make as much money as they would with corn,” York said. “But you’re also going to save about a third of the money on inputs compared to corn and soybeans.”

Shorter-season small grains like rye can mean a chance to come back with something like millet as a second crop. Farmers can choose rye and then rent out the land for fall grazing as another income opportunity.

It’s never been more important to maximize inputs than it is in drought-stricken areas of rural America. Wilbur-Ellis has an in-house program for farmers called Probe Schedule.

“It’s a chance to leverage the information pulled from moisture probes, weather data, and irrigation management to ensure farmers are making good use of their inputs,” Voight said.

The company install probes in the fields and gives guidance from the data they collect.

The other way to maximize water availability is to keep the soil as healthy as possible. Healthier soil will retain water more efficiently than unhealthy soil. In fact, Schroth says healthy soils will establish the groundwork for a farm’s whole year of operation.

“Good fertility programs are going to help a lot,” Schroth said. “There are products designed to keep your crops healthier. A fungicide like our Sonata will keep that crop healthy, relieve stress in the heat of the day, and utilize the water more efficiently.”

York talked about a product called Tidal Wave, designed to help with nutrient uptake.

“The seaweed extract helps with stomata control of the corn,” he said. “That’s what opens and closes the cells. Those cells close during the heat of the day, so they won’t lose as much water. That will allow farmers to use less water.”

Maximizing the available water and inputs is a good place to begin when the year is expected to be challenging. Schroth says the best advice is to work with your local agronomist and “pick the situations that make the most sense.”