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Climate change will devastate crop yields

Josie Garthwaite Stanford University
Jan 21, 2026
Jan 21, 2026

Farmland — After adjusting for how real farmers adapt, researchers estimate global yields of calories from staple crops in a high-emissions future will be 24 percent less in 2100 than they would be without climate change. U.S. agriculture and other breadbaskets are among the hardest-hit in the study’s projections.
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Josie Garthwaite Stanford University

A sweeping new analysis finds that warming global temperatures will dampen the world’s capacity to produce food from most staple crops, even after accounting for economic development and adaptation by farmers. New research offers the most comprehensive look yet at how global crop yields are likely to change as the planet warms.

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Josie Garthwaite is the director of communications at the Stanford University-Stanford University-Doerr School of Sustainability.

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Projected end-of-century change in crop yields resulting from climate change in a scenario where emissions remain high, accounting for adaptation to climate and increasing incomes..

Projected end-of-century change in crop yields resulting from climate change in a scenario where emissions remain high, accounting for adaptat…

Global warming exceeding 2 degrees Celsius warmer than the 2001-2010 average would likely cut global food-production capacity from six staple crops by nearly a quarter.

Global warming exceeding 2 degrees Celsius warmer than the 2001-2010 average would likely cut global food-production capacity from six staple …

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Projected end-of-century change in crop yields resulting from climate change in a scenario where emissions remain high, accounting for adaptation to climate and increasing incomes..

Global warming exceeding 2 degrees Celsius warmer than the 2001-2010 average would likely cut global food-production capacity from six staple crops by nearly a quarter.

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