Corn Corn closed the week 2.75 cents higher. Private exporters announced sales of 10.5 million bushels of corn to Mexico and 6.5 million bushels of corn to an unknown destination. In the weekly export inspections report; With the strong export week, cumulative export inspections of 332 million bushels rose to a marketing year high 27% gain versus last year's 262 million bushels, leaving weekly exports needing to average roughly 39.3 million bushels per week from this point forward in order to reach the USDA's 2.075 billion bushel export projection versus last year's 30.8 million per week average from this point forward. In the weekly Energy Information Administration report, U.S. ethanol production saw a solid increase to 1.076 million barrels per day from 1.011 million barrels per day the previous week, hitting a 19-week high in the process but was still essentially unchanged from last year's same-week production of 1.077 million barrels per day and marked the 4th week of the last five in which production was below year ago levels. Over the last four weeks, ethanol production averaged 1.039 million barrels per day, meeting the estimated 1.032 million barrels per day average needed pace, which would be up 2% from last year, as necessary through the end of August in order to reach the USDA's 5.325 billion bushel corn for ethanol usage estimate. Despite the production increase, U.S. ethanol stocks were essentially unchanged for the week at 21.439 mil barrels versus 21.379 million barrels the previous week, while increasing the year-over-year deficit to 76 million gallons (-7.8%) as stocks remain flat versus usually seasonally increasing from November through March. In the monthly supply/demand report, U.S. corn stocks were lowered to 2.131 billion bushels versus 2.156 billion bushels last month and below estimates of 2.176 billion bushels. USDA increased U.S. corn exports by 25 million bushels to account for tighter than expected ending stocks while leaving ethanol usage and feed usage unchanged. No changes to Brazil corn or Argentina corn production estimates. World ending stocks were pegged at 315.2, a six year high versus 315.0 metric tons last month and estimates of 312.9 metric tons. Strategy and outlook Producers should sell into the large carries offered into the summer months. Soybeans Soybeans closed the week 19.75 cents lower. Last week, private exporters announced sales of 10 million bushels of soybeans to China, 4.5 million bushels of soybeans to an unknown destination and 183,000 metric tons of meal to the Philippines. In the weekly export inspections report; U.S. soybean exports last week were disappointing at 40.7 million bushels and declining to a nine-week low from the previous week's 57.8 million bushels, while also having declined for four consecutive weeks. One year ago exports this week were significantly larger at 76.5 million bushels. Over the last four weeks, soybean exports averaged 57.4 million bushels per week, significantly below last year's 81.2 million per week average during the same period. Cumulative export inspections of 687 million bushels fell to a marketing year high deficit to last year's 796 million bushels of 13.7%, leaving weekly shipments needing to average roughly 25.5 million bushels per week through the end of next August versus 28.8 million per week average from this point forward last year. USDA reported U.S. soybean crush in October was 201.4 million bushels, in line with average market expectations of 201.1 million, seasonally rising sharply from 174.8 million bushels in September and was 2.4% above year ago October crush of 196.7 million. October crush reflected a new all-time record monthly crush rate, regardless of month, beating the previous record of 198.2 million bushels in December 2021 and compared to the previous record for the month of October of 196.9 million bushels in 2021, as well. Through the first two months of 2023/24, cumulative crush of 376 million bushels is up 3.3% from last year’s 364 million. USDA reported 2.376 billion pounds of soybean oil was produced in October, up from 2.077 billion in September and last year’s 2.338 billion pounds, reflecting a new all-time record monthly production, not surprising given the record crush for the month. The USDA reported end-October U.S. total soybean oil stocks were 1.507 billion pounds, modestly below average market expectations of 1.540 billion, declining further from September stocks of 1.602 billion pounds and reflecting the sixth consecutive month of declining stocks, while being notably below year ago October stocks of 2.094 billion pounds. Moreover, October stocks were, again, the lowest for the month nine years and continued to decline. In the supply/demand report, U.S. soybean stocks were left unchanged at 245 million bushels as the USDA chose to make no changes to U.S. demand profile while lowering the Brazil crop estimate to 161.0 million metric tons, down 2 million metric tons from last month but 1 million metric ton larger than trade expectations. This would still be marginally larger than last year's 160.0 million metric tons crop, but still record large. The USDA made no changes to the Argentine soybean production estimates while world .soybean stocks were forecast at 114.2 million metric tons versus 114.5 million metric tons last month and 112.3 million metric tons estimated. Strategy and outlook Producers should sell the large carries offered into the summer months and re-own with futures and options. Wheat Chicago wheat closed 30.5 cents higher and Kansas City wheat closed 17 cents higher. Private exporters announced sales of 41.2 million bushelsof Soft Red Winter to China and Egypt purchased 540,000 metric tons of Russian wheat and 60,000 metric tons of Romanian wheat. In the weekly export inspections report; U.S. wheat exports last week were minimal at 6.9 million bushels, declining from the previous week's 10.6 million bushels and were notably below year ago same-week exports of 12.6 million bushels. With the first six months of the 2023-2024 marketing year coming to a close, cumulative export inspections sit at a mere 306 million bushels, down 24% from last year's 401 million and still at an all-time record low in available data going back 50 years. Wheat export inspections will need to average roughly 14.1 million bushels per week through the end of next May to reach the USDA's 700 million bushel export projection, which reflects an expected 7.8% decline in exports for the year, versus last year's 12.8 million per week average from this point forward. Kansas winter wheat crop rating was up eight points from last week, at 40% good-to-excellent. The crop is 96% emerged versus 93% five year average. Stats Canada estimated Canada’s all wheat crop at 31.954 million metric tons versus 29.83 million metric tons previously estimated versus 34.3 million metric tons last year. The spring wheat crop was raised to 24.762 million metric tons from 22.64 million metric tons previously and above the average trade guess of 24 million metric tons but down from last year’s 25.84 million metric tons. In the monthly supply/demand report; U.S. wheat ending stocks were lowered to 659 million bushels, down 25 million bushels from last month as the USDA increased US wheat exports by 25 million bushels to account for tighter than expected ending stocks. Specifically, the USDA raised Soft Red Winter exports by 30 million bushels to 175 million bushels, well above last year's 107 million bushels exports and lowered white wheat exports by 5 million bushels from last month. World wheat stocks were pegged at 258.2 million metric tons versus 258.7 metric tons last month and 258.2 million metric tons estimated. Strategy and outlook The job of the wheat market is to find a price level that will stimulate demand and chew through US ending stocks. Wheat exports are too slow to see any type of a sustained bull market. Live and feeder cattle Live cattle closed $3.20 lower while feeder cattle closed $1.47 lower. Light fed cattle cash trade occurred in the north at $171 live and $271 dressed which is $3 to $4 lower than last week. Moderate trade volumes in the south, also at $171 live which is, again, $3 to $4 softer compared to week ago prices. The FCE had 1,960 head offered for sale and 595 head sold and $169.00. The latest USDA steer carcass weights came in 4 pounds higher than last week at a record-high 940 pounds which is 13 pounds above year-ago levels. The weekly export sales report has net beef sales of 200 metric tons for 2023, a marketing year low and 18,400 metric tons for 2024 with shipments of 13,700 metric tons. Strategy and outlook Producers should have window or fence strategies to protect the downside but allow for upside potential. Lean hogs Lean hogs closed the week $1.17 lower. Iowa and southern Minnesota weekly hog weights for week ending Dec. 2 has weights up to 290.6 pounds versus 289.7 pounds last week and 286.4 pounds last year. The weekly export sales report has net pork sales of 25,900 metric tons for 2023 and 10,100 metric tons for 2024 with shipments of 10,100 metric tons. Strategy and outlook Producers are encouraged to re-establish hedges near weekly resistance levels.
|