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“Prices were mostly higher across the complex with beans up $.10-$.21, meal surged $6-$7 while oil was steady. Bean and oil spreads were mixed while meal spreads firmed. Despite being $.20 higher Mch-26 beans held within yesterday’s range. After trading to a fresh 5 ½ month high overnight, Mch-26 oil failed to trade above $.56 lb. setting up the price pullback. Mch-26 meal surged to its highest level in a month while closing very close to its 50/100 day MA’s. Spot board crush margins pulled back another $.04 ½ to $1.67 bu. while bean oil PV slipped just below 48%. While it may not make economic sense for China to buy more U.S. beans, they did buy 12 mmt Nov-25 thru Jan-26 at prices above what they could have secured from Brazil. Price volatility likely to remain high leading up to EPA decision on RVO’s and SRE’s in March and Trump’s visit to China in April. Addition Chinese buying, or lack thereof, along with price differentials between US and SA to drive prices. Another 8 mmt of old crop soybean sales to China would be a game changer for the US balance sheet. Instead of looking at a 25-50 mil. bu. reduction, we could be talking about 25-50 mil. bu. increase driving stocks closer to 300 mil. bu. Bean sales at 16 mil. were below expectations. Commitments at 1.260 bil. are down 20% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 16%. Sales to China at 233k mt (half switched from unknown) bring total sales to 9.9 mmt with another 3.1 mmt to unknown. Shipments to China are just over 4.3 mmt.,” reported Mark Soderberg with ADM Investor Services.





