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Trade war takes crops as victims

Brent Gloy and David Widmar Agricultural Economic Insights
Jun 4, 2019
Jun 4, 2019

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As the bitter reality of a seemingly never-ending and possibly-expanding trade war crashes down on the farm sector it’s useful – albeit sobering – to think about the economic consequences and impacts.

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Figure 1. Value of Total U.S. Ag Exports to China, 2000 – 2018. Data Source: USDA Global Agricultural Trade System

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Figure 2. U.S. Soybean Exports, total in blue and to China in orange, 2000- 2018. Data Source: USDA Global Agricultural Trade System

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Figure 3. U.S. Farm-Level Soybean Prices, monthly, Jan 2017- March 2019. Data Source: USDA Global Agricultural Trade System

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Figure 4. U.S. Soybean Endings Stocks to Use Ratio, 1990-1991 to 2019-2020. Data Source: USDA’s Production, Supply and Distribution. Average from 1990-1991 – 2018-2019 – 9.3 percent; 2019-2020F – 23.1 percent

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Figure 5. U.S. Corn Endings Stocks to Use Ratio, 1990-1991 to 2019-2020. Data Source: USDA Production, Supply and Distribution. Average from 1990-1991 – 2018-2019 – 13.9 percent. 2019-2020F: 16.9 percent

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Figure 6. Real Net Farm Income, 1929 – 2019 where 2019 equals 100. Data Source: USDA’s Economic Research Service

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