“Choice box beef prices are at their highest level since September 2021,” he says. “The Choice beef cutout price surpassed $300 per hundredweight in the middle of April and has exceeded that level for nearly a month. However, prices stalled near $311 at the end of April, and they have not been able to push higher.”

Griffith says the cutout price actually saw a slight decline, as markets fought to maintain their peak as Memorial Day approaches.

“The Choice cutout price has actually declined slightly as the market heads towards the first grilling holiday,” he says. “The peak of wholesale beef prices corresponds with the timing that would be expected for purchases for Memorial Day weekend, but peak prices were not sustained.”

There are a few factors at play, including changes to the national food assistance program.

“One thing that may have put a damper on beef prices this spring is the change in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP),” Griffith says. “A temporary boost in SNAP benefits known as emergency allotments were ended following the February payment, which means anyone receiving SNAP payments now have fewer dollars to purchase food.”

On the cattle marketing side, Griffith is also watching seasonal trends for calf prices.

“The price of calves continues to creep higher, though at a much slower pace than a few weeks ago,” he says. “It is difficult to decipher if this is the seasonal slow-down in prices or if the cattle market is beginning to see some head winds. An argument can be made for both in that lighter weight calf prices typically stall in May and switch directions as the market gets deeper into the summer months.”

The yearling market is beginning to show its typical strength for this time of year.

“Alternatively, the yearling cattle market begins to gain momentum and strengthen through the summer months,” Griffith says.

“Thus, it is going to take a few weeks to have a better understanding if seasonal tendencies are at play or if the market is coming under pressure from other sources.”